Predictions of the incidence of gastrointestinal cancers in the Świętokrzyskie region by the year 2025

Introduction
Malignant tumours are a growing health problem in Polish society. The authors have made an attempt to estimate the incidence of tumours of digestive organs in the future – among others, colorectal cancer, constituting 17.4% of cases in men and 10.0% among women. The above assessment is important for administrative reasons (allocation of resources, e.g. between prevention, diagnosis, treatment, social assistance) and scientific (evaluation of the effectiveness of interventions).

Aim of the research
To forecast the incidence of selected gastrointestinal cancers in the Świętokrzyskie region by the year 2025.

Material and methods
The research material consisted of the data concerning 13,002 incidences of gastrointestinal cancers in the Świętokrzyskie region in the period from 1999 to 2014 produced by the National Cancer Registry. The Hakulinen and Dyba method developed by the Finnish Cancer Registry was used to estimate the expected morbidity and incidence rates in the period of 10 years.

Results
The rate of the expected morbidity and incidence rates in 2025 compared to 2014 is presented for stomach, colon, rectum, and liver cancers in men and women.

Conclusions
The predictions in terms of the incidence of cancers, including rectum and liver cancers in men as well as colon and rectum cancers in women, in the Świętokrzyskie region indicate an upward trend compared to the year 2014. A downward trend in morbidity refers to stomach and colon cancers in men as well as stomach and liver cancers in women.