Temporal analysis of goals scored in futsal: a comparison of two models

Purpose
In futsal, the goal is the most important situation that can lead the teams to victory. The understanding of when they are scored can help adopting effective strategies, increasing the chances of victory. This study aimed to compare 2 models for analysing goals scored in futsal as a function of time.

Methods
Overall, 1122 goals were analysed in 194 matches of the 2018 Brazilian Futsal League, male adult category. The playing time was divided into four 10-minute periods (conventional model) and eight 5-minute periods (alternative model). The goal occurrence was compared with mixed models of repeated measures, and the fit of models by Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC).

Results
Both models were statistically significant (p < 0.001), indicating that the means of goals were different depending on the periods. The conventional model showed that the mean of goals was higher in the final 10 minutes (p < 0.001); the alternative model implied that from the seventh to the eighth period the mean of goals increased by 39.1% (95% CI: 0.27–0.64, p < 0.001). In addition, the 5-minute model revealed a better fit than the 10-minute model in accordance with AIC and BIC.

Conclusions
This finding suggests that more reliable models are useful for better understanding of how the frequency of crucial events, such as goals, changes in the course of a match. We provide information for the coaching staff to strategically think about the best situations for their teams to succeed in competitive matches.