@Article{Godlewski2012,
journal="Contemporary Oncology/Współczesna Onkologia",
issn="1428-2526",
volume="16",
number="1",
year="2012",
title="Predictions of cancer incidence in Wielkopolska in 2018",
abstract="  Aim of the study:   The cancer incidence in Wielkopolska in 2008 was one of the highest in the country and was higher than in Poland by 21% in men and by 14% in women. We can quantify the future burden of cancer from two different perspectives: the number of new cancer cases due to population change and new cases due to risk change. Making predictions of number of new cancer cases in Wielko­polska in 2018.     Material and methods  : These projections of number of cancer cases, age specific rates and age-standardized rates for 2018 (all cancers and the most frequent cancers for men and women) has been based on the historical trends of cancer incidence in Wielkopolska in 1999-2008 and demographical prognosis of Central Statistical Office using the method of Hakulinen and Dyba.     Results  : There will be over 8000 new cancer cases in men in Wielkopolska in 2018 and over 7000 in women. Compare to the period 2004-2008 the number of cancer cases will increase by 45% for men and by nearly 30% for women. About 2/3 of the increase in Wielkopolska is predicted to be connected with demography change, 1/3 with risk change.     Conclusions  : The predicted increase of number of cancer cases in Wielkopolska in 2018 will be the result of: changes in the population (bigger impact of the older age groups), an influence of the risk factors (mainly smoking) and a participation in the screening programs.",
author="Godlewski, Dariusz
and Wojtyś, Piotr
and Antczak, Andrzej",
pages="38--43",
doi="10.5114/wo.2012.27335",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.5114/wo.2012.27335"
}