@Article{Dergaa2026,
journal="Biology of Sport",
issn="0860-021X",
year="2026",
title="What determined match outcomes at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? An explainable machine learning analysis of penalty area precision and composure under pressure",
abstract=" The 2026 FIFA World Cup was the first edition played by 48 teams across 104 matches.   We analysed 142 official FIFA metrics per team per match, including line breaks, pressing events and receptions  between the lines, none previously analysed at a World Cup. Win and loss performances were compared with  Cliff’s delta under false discovery rate control; 86 of 125 screened metrics differed. Outcomes were modelled  with five algorithms under repeated stratified cross-validation, using team-minus-opponent differentials.  Explainability used SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), and uncertainty used split-conformal analysis, a first  World Cup combination. On-target attempts inside the penalty area showed the largest single effect (winners  4.4 versus losers 1.7; delta = 0.68). Win probability crossed 50% at 2.9 and 75% at 4.3 of these attempts.  The regularised differential logistic model reached area under the curve 0.946 (accuracy 0.875), read descriptively  because features exceed matches. Walking distance ranked first in averaged SHAP importance in the gradient  boosting model; its strongest interactions joined total attempts on target (0.79) and on-target attempts inside  the penalty area (0.71), the second-ranked feature. Teams dominating all five leading duels won 92% of decided  matches; teams dominating none won 13%. Conformal coverage averaged 0.885 at the 90% target; 15% of  matches remained uncertain. Finishing precision was the most consistent discriminator across stratifications  (balanced-pairing delta = 0.53 inside the box, -0.54 conceded). Pressure-resistant possession showed strong  overall and knockout-stage associations (delta = 0.56 and 0.65). Building these two capacities is the most  defensible practical priority, pending prospective confirmation. ",
author="Dergaa, Ismail
and Morgans, Ryland
and Chamari, Karim",
pages="1677--1692",
doi="10.5114/biolsport.2026.164000",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.5114/biolsport.2026.164000"
}