@Article{Nisbet2026,
journal="Biology of Sport",
issn="0860-021X",
year="2026",
title="Context-dependent effects of environmental conditions on match running performance in elite soccer",
abstract="  Elite soccer matches are played across diverse climates and locations. This study examined the influence of environmental stressors on match running performance, focusing on independent and interaction effects of temperature, humidity, altitude, and time of day. A total of 3,021 player-match observations from 186 players across 303 matches during the 2024/25  Saudi Pro League were analysed using linear mixed-effects models. Whole-match (total distance [TD], high-speed running [HSR], sprint distance [SD]) and phase-specific outputs were assessed. Environmental factors showed statistically significant although small independent effects (marginal R2 ≤ 4.6%). Temperature was the most consistent negative predictor, associated with reductions in TD (β = -197.58, p \< 0.001) and HSR (β = -25.77, p \< 0.001). Humidity and altitude had limited direct effects however contributed through interactions, particularly altitude×temperature and altitude×humidity. SD was not influenced by independent predictors (marginal R2 = 0.5%) however was driven by interaction effects. Between-player variability accounted for the largest proportion of variance (39–60%), substantially exceeding positional (7–13%) and environmental contributions. Conditional R2 values (42–72%) highlighted the dominant role of individual characteristics. Environmental stressors exert small, context-dependent effects on match running performance, with temperature the strongest independent factor. Performance variability is primarily driven by inter-individual differences, with environmental effects largely interaction-based and phasespecific. These findings underscore the need to mitigate heat-related reductions in HSR and the use of phasespecific metrics for performance analysis. ",
author="Nisbet, Daniel
and Mandorino, Mauro
and Zmijewski, Piotr
and Morgans, Ryland",
pages="59--73",
doi="10.5114/biolsport.2027.164648",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.5114/biolsport.2027.164648"
}