@Article{Castellano2026,
journal="Biology of Sport",
issn="0860-021X",
year="2026",
title="Tell me the match context, and I’ll tell you how much the team will run, or should have run: an update and divisional extension of a predictive running model for Spanish professional football",
abstract=" To update the predictive model of a team’s total distance (TotDisTea) proposed by Castellano  et al. (2024) for the Spanish First Division (LaLiga1), using five seasons (2021–22 to 2025–26), and to extend  it to the Second Division (LaLiga2), from a dual perspective: a retrospective (evaluative) approach to assess  performance already produced, and a prospective (predictive) approach usable before a match. Team physical  performances from official matches were analysed (LaLiga1: 2,894 team-match records from 1,447 matches;  LaLiga2: 3,542 from 1,771), recorded with a multi-camera system. For each division, an all-possible-regressions  procedure selected the best linear model for TotDisTea from seven situational predictors: match location, match  outcome, team and opponent level, effective-playing-time (EffPlaTim), ball-possession (BalPos) and the opponent’s  total distance (TotDisOpp). A reduced model excluding TotDisOpp was additionally estimated for prospective  use. Models were cross-validated at the match level and fitted with cluster-robust standard errors. In both  divisions TotDisOpp was the strongest predictor (b= 0.72 and 0.79). The LaLiga1 model additionally retained  team and opponent levels, EffPlaTim and BalPos (R2adj= 0.86); the more parsimonious LaLiga2 model retained  TotDisOpp, EffPlaTim and BalPos (R2adj= 0.85). Match location and match outcome were not selected in either  league. The reduced models retained EffPlaTim and BalPos, with lower accuracy (R2adj= 0.71 and 0.61).  Opponent running is the most stable predictor in both divisions, but the predictive structure is league-specific  and coefficients may change over time, warranting periodic updating. The equations let practitioners evaluate  a team’s response after a match, and enable anticipation beforehand. ",
author="Castellano, Julen
and López-Del Campo, Roberto
and Resta, Ricardo
and Hileno, Raul",
pages="1725--1733",
doi="10.5114/biolsport.2026.164806",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.5114/biolsport.2026.164806"
}