Occurrence of risk factors for non-communicable diseases in Poland and the Podlaskie Voivodeship: trend analysis of mortality rates, 2000-2021

Introduction
Effective health policy requires the systematic monitoring of population health needs, including identification and evaluation of risk factors. In Poland, the tool used for this purpose is the Maps of Health Needs which are regularly updated with new epidemiological data and serve as a basis for planning preventive actions. This study aimed to assess and compare health risk factors in Poland and the Podlaskie Voivodeship, with a focus on emerging regional and sex-specific inequalities.

Material and methods
Analyses were based on data from the Maps of Health Needs. Trends in mortality associated with metabolic, behavioral, and combined environmental and occupational risk factors were examined in Poland and the Podlaskie Voivodeship between 2000 and 2021, stratified by sex. Annual percent changes (APC) with 95% confidence intervals were calculated, and p < 0.05 was used to determine statistical significance. Joinpoint regression models were applied using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 5.4.0 – April 2023).

Results
Significant differences were observed between sexes and between Poland and the Podlaskie Voivodeship, where mortality rates were lower. Among men, nationwide declines in mortality rates associated with all categories of risk factors were observed, with the largest decrease for environmental factors (–11.81%), whereas in the Podlaskie Voivodeship mortality rates linked to metabolic factors increased (+3.04%). Among women, mortality rates associated with metabolic (+14.63% vs. +5.70%) and behavioral factors (+16.92% vs. +6.03%) showed a marked upward trend.

Conclusions
Of particular concern are the rising mortality rates related to high BMI and elevated fasting plasma glucose. Rising mortality rates related to high BMI and elevated fasting plasma glucose are of particular concern and highlight the urgent need for targeted, population-level preventive strategies.