From the active inference to predostatic mind – toward an integration of predictive models in therapeutic ornithology and birdwatching

Contemporary cognitive neuroscience increasingly emphasizes the role of predictive mechanisms in psychological regulation. The concept of the predostatic mind describes three fundamental modes of brain functioning – alarm, seek, and balance – and highlights that mental health depends on the flexible switching between them. The theory of active inference provides the formal foundation for this process, conceptualizing the brain as a Bayesian system that minimizes surprise and entropy through the construction and updating of generative models. In this article, we propose an integration of these two approaches and demonstrate that together they form a coherent framework for understanding both psychological regulation and its disorders (ADHD, depression, addictions). To illustrate these processes, we refer to birdwatching – the practice of observing birds – as a natural laboratory of active inference. We also point to therapeutic ornithology as a useful tool for improving mental health. Birdwatching, which engages vigilance, curiosity, and contemplation, actively trains all three modes of the predostatic mind while simultaneously providing an excellent demonstration of Bayesian inference in action. A particularly salient phenomenon here is “jizz”, the rapid recognition of a bird species, which can be interpreted as an instance of Bayesian inference: combining prior expectations with incomplete sensory data. Birdwatching, understood as an exercise in transitioning between mental modes, may prove useful in the treatment of disorders where this flexibility is impaired – such as ADHD (dominated by alarm and seek), depression (loss of seek, overload of alarm), or addictions (compulsive seek without balancing balance).