The effect of contextualised match variables on the metabolic 
power of elite soccer players during English Premier League 
match-play

Ryland Morgans; Rafael Oliveira; Mauro Mandorino; Ben Ryan; Piotr Zmijewski; Toni Modric; Jose Teixeira; Alexandre Moreira

doi:10.5114/biolsport.2026.156783

eISSN: 2083-1862
ISSN: 0860-021X

Biology of Sport

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abstract:

Original paper

The effect of contextualised match variables on the metabolic power of elite soccer players during English Premier League match-play

Ryland Morgans

^{1, 2}

,

Rafael Oliveira

^{3, 4}

,

Mauro Mandorino

^{5, 6}

,

Ben Ryan

²

,

Piotr Zmijewski

^{7, 8}

,

Toni Modric

^{9, 10}

,

Jose Eduardo Teixeira

^{11, 12, 13}

,

Alexandre Moreira

¹⁴

School of Sport and Health Sciences, Cardiff Metropolitan University, Cardiff, UK
Brentford FC Football Research Centre, Brentford FC, London, UK
Research Centre in Sports Sciences, Health and Human Development, (CIDESD), Santarém Polytechnic University, 2040-413 Rio Maior, Portugal
Santarém Polytechnic University, School of Sport, 2040-413 Rio Maior, Portugal
Performance and Analytics Department, Parma Calcio 1913, 43121 Parma, Italy
Department of Movement, Human and Health Sciences, University of Rome “Foro Italico”, 00135 Rome, Italy
Jozef Pilsudski University of Physical Education in Warsaw, 00-809 Warsaw, Poland
Research and Development Center Legia Lab, Legia Warszawa, Poland
Faculty of Kinesiology, University of Split, Split, Croatia
High Performance Sport Center, Croatian Olympic Committee, Zagreb, Croatia
Department of Sports Sciences, Polytechnic of Guarda, Guarda, Portugal
Department of Sports Sciences, Polytechnic of Cávado and Ave, Guimarães, Portugal
SPRINT-Sport Physical Activity and Health Research & Innovation Center, Guarda, Portugal
Department of Sport, School of Physical Education and Sport, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

Biol Sport. 2026;43:671–678

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5114/biolsport.2026.156783

Online publish date: 2025/12/04

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This study examined the effect of contextualised match variables on metabolic power of elite soccer players during English Premier League (EPL) match-play across four seasons (2021/22–2024/25), comparing in-possession (MP_IP) and out-of-possession (MPOP) phases. Match data from 31 male professional soccer players retrieved from 152 regular-season EPL competitive matches was obtained via an optical tracking system and analysed with decision tree regression models. The MP_IP model demonstrated strong predictive accuracy (RMSE = 1.54; MPE = 2.04%), identifying playing position as the dominant predictor (88% of total feature importance). Defenders exhibited the lowest MPIP, while forwards in a 3-5-2 team formation showed the highest values (MP_IP = 15.7 W · kg⁻¹). Conversely, the lowest MPIP values (MPIP = 12.1 W · kg⁻¹) were observed when the study team did not employ a 3-5-2 team formation and faced opponents with a ranking difference of less than eight positions. The MPOP model also demonstrated robust predictive performance (RMSE = 1.59; MPE = 1.30%). Playing position was the most influential factor (44% of total feature importance), with midfielders displaying higher MPOP. Forwards had the lowest MPOP in the second half, while the highest values (MPOP = 17.1 W · kg⁻¹) were observed for midfielders when the team was losing in a 3-5-2 formation. These findings confirm that positional role is the principal determinant of metabolic power in EPL match-play, with midfielders particularly exposed to elevated demands out-of-possession. Tactical structure, match status, and match period further modulate metabolic load, highlighting the need to consider context-specific training strategies.

keywords:

Match-play, Metabolic power, Playing position, Match period, Opponent ranking, Team formation, Match status, Location, Optical tracking, Football, Soccer

The effect of contextualised match variables on the metabolic power of elite soccer players during English Premier League match-play

Ryland Morgans 1, 2 , Rafael Oliveira 3, 4 , Mauro Mandorino 5, 6 , Ben Ryan 2 , Piotr Zmijewski 7, 8 , Toni Modric 9, 10 , Jose Eduardo Teixeira 11, 12, 13 , Alexandre Moreira 14

Match-play, Metabolic power, Playing position, Match period, Opponent ranking, Team formation, Match status, Location, Optical tracking, Football, Soccer

Ryland Morgans

^{1, 2}

,

Rafael Oliveira

^{3, 4}

,

Mauro Mandorino

^{5, 6}

,

Ben Ryan

²

,

Piotr Zmijewski

^{7, 8}

,

Toni Modric

^{9, 10}

,

Jose Eduardo Teixeira

^{11, 12, 13}

,

Alexandre Moreira

¹⁴