The loading impact of training and match-play on non-contact 
muscle injuries in elite male soccer players. A seasonal analysis

Ryland Morgans; Rafael Oliveira; Mauro Mandorino; Piotr Zmijewski; Ben Ryan; Toni Modric; Jose Teixeira; Alexandre Moreira

doi:10.5114/biolsport.2026.153305

eISSN: 2083-1862
ISSN: 0860-021X

Biology of Sport

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abstract:

Original paper

The loading impact of training and match-play on non-contact muscle injuries in elite male soccer players. A seasonal analysis

Ryland Morgans

^{1, 2}

,

Rafael Oliveira

^{3, 4}

,

Mauro Mandorino

^{5, 6}

,

Piotr Zmijewski

^{7, 8}

,

Ben Ryan

²

,

Toni Modric

^{9, 10}

,

Jose Teixeira

^{11, 12}

,

Alexandre Moreira

¹³

School of Sport and Health Sciences, Cardiff Metropolitan University, Cardiff, UK
Brentford FC Football Research Centre, Brentford FC, London, UK
Research Centre in Sport Sciences, Health Sciences and Human Development (CIDESD), Santarém Polytechnic University, 2040-413 Rio Maior, Portugal
Santarém Polytechnic University, School of Sport, Av. Dr. Mário Soares, 2040-413 Rio Maior, Portugal
Performance and Analytics Department, Parma Calcio 1913, 43121 Parma, Italy
Department of Movement, Human and Health Sciences, University of Rome “Foro Italico”, 00135 Rome, Italy
Jozef Pilsudski University of Physical Education in Warsaw, 00-809 Warsaw, Poland
Research and Development Center Legia Lab, Legia Warszawa, Poland
Faculty of Kinesiology, University of Split, Split, Croatia
High Performance Sport Center, Croatian Olympic Committee, Zagreb, Croatia
Research Centre in Sports, Health and Human Development, Covilhã, Portugal
Department of Sport Sciences, Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Bragança, Portugal
Department of Sport, School of Physical Education and Sport, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

Biol Sport. 2026; 43: 107–114

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5114/biolsport.2026.153305

Online publish date: 2025/08/06

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This study investigated the relationship between acute and chronic training load metrics and non-contact muscle injuries in elite soccer players employing a novel statistical approach. A retrospective analysis was conducted during the 2020/21 season on 30 senior outfield players from an English Premier League club. Global Positioning System (GPS) technology monitored total distance, high-speed running (HSR) distance (5.5–7 m/s), sprint distance (> 7 m/s), and peak speed during training sessions and matches. A total of 42 injuries were documented, with an incidence of 8.94 injuries per 1000 hours, although only 12 non-contact muscle injuries were included in the analysis that occurred at 2.5 per 1000 hours of exposure. Acute (7-day) and chronic (28-day) training loads were examined, and data preprocessing addressed missing values and multicollinearity. To address class imbalance, the dataset was balanced using the Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique (SMOTE) prior to logistic regression. Four significant predictors were retained: acute HSR (β = -0.175, p < 0.001), acute sprint distance (β = -0.613, p < 0.001), acute peak speed (β = 1.101, p < 0.001), and chronic total distance (β = 2.234, p < 0.001). The model demonstrated excellent discriminative ability with an AUC-ROC of 0.80. The results showed that higher acute volumes of HSR and sprint distance serve as protective factors against non-contact muscle injuries, whereas an increase in acute peak speed and chronic total distance significantly elevates injury risk. These findings underscore the importance of regular exposure to HSR to enhance injury resilience, while excessive load and peak speed may contribute to neuromuscular fatigue and overload.

keywords:

The loading impact of training and match-play on non-contact muscle injuries in elite male soccer players. A seasonal analysis

Ryland Morgans 1, 2 , Rafael Oliveira 3, 4 , Mauro Mandorino 5, 6 , Piotr Zmijewski 7, 8 , Ben Ryan 2 , Toni Modric 9, 10 , Jose Teixeira 11, 12 , Alexandre Moreira 13

External load, Football, Non-contact muscle injuries, Sprinting, High-speed running, Soccer

Ryland Morgans

^{1, 2}

,

Rafael Oliveira

^{3, 4}

,

Mauro Mandorino

^{5, 6}

,

Piotr Zmijewski

^{7, 8}

,

Ben Ryan

²

,

Toni Modric

^{9, 10}

,

Jose Teixeira

^{11, 12}

,

Alexandre Moreira

¹³