Possession in motion: a five-season analysis of running in-possession and out-of-possession with match outcomes in the English Premier League

This study examined relationships between running load, possession metrics, and team success (points per game (PPG)), across five English Premier League (EPL) seasons (2019/20–2023/24). Comparison of running and possession demands when facing top six (T6) versus lower-ranked (7–20) opponents was also explored. Analysis of 1675 matches, using Second Spectrum® optical tracking system, to measure running load variables (total distance (TD), high-intensity distance (HID), high-speed running (HSR), sprint distance (SprD), expressed as totals, in-possession per minute (TIP), out-of-possession per minute (TOOP), and TOOP/TIP ratios. Pearson’s correlations assessed relationships between running load, possession, ball-in-play (BiP), and PPG. Differences between T6 and lower-ranked teams were assessed using Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. PPG correlated very largely with possession (r = .74, p < 0.001), and largely with TOOP/TIP ratios and BiP (r = .50–.65, p < 0.001). Moderate positive correlations with PPG were observed with TOOP metrics (r = .34–.45, p < 0.001), while SprD showed a small positive relationship (r = .25, p=0.01). TIP metrics correlated negatively with PPG (r = –.22 to –.57, p = 0.001–0.023). Against T6 teams, clubs ran more in total and TIP (ES = 0.11–0.41, p < 0.02), but less TOOP and lower TOOP/TIP ratios (ES = –0.11 to –0.54, p < 0.006), alongside reduced possession (ES = –0.96 to –1.04, p < 0.001) and PPG (ES = –0.61 to –0.66, p < 0.001). EPL success is very largely associated with possession and greater out-of-possession running, while in-possession running relates negatively. Only SprD correlated with PPG, suggesting total running load is less influential than possession and defensive running efficiency.