Biology of Sport
eISSN: 2083-1862
ISSN: 0860-021X
Biology of Sport
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abstract:
Original paper

The relative age effect and transition rates across a national soccer program in male and female youth to senior players. A longitudinal analysis

Daniel Nisbet
1, 2
,
Mauro Mandorino
3, 4
,
Piotr Zmijewski
5, 6
,
Toni Modric
7, 8
,
José Eduardo Teixeira
9, 10, 11
,
Alexandre Moreira
12
,
Ryland Morgans
1

  1. School of Sport and Health Sciences, Cardiff Metropolitan University, Cardiff, UK
  2. Al Ahli Saudi FC, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
  3. Performance and Analytics Department, Parma Calcio 1913, 43121 Parma, Italy
  4. Department of Movement, Human and Health Sciences, University of Rome “Foro Italico”, 00135 Rome, Italy
  5. Jozef Pilsudski University of Physical Education in Warsaw, 00-809 Warsaw, Poland
  6. Research and Development Center Legia Lab, Legia Warszawa, Poland
  7. Faculty of Kinesiology, University of Split, Split, Croatia
  8. High Performance Sport Center, Croatian Olympic Committee, Zagreb, Croatia
  9. Department of Sports Sciences, Polytechnic of Guarda, 6300-559 Guarda, Portugal
  10. Department of Sports Sciences, Polytechnic of Cávado and Ave., 4800-058 Guimarães, Portugal
  11. SPRINT—Sport Physical Activity and Health Research & Innovation Center, 6300-559 Guarda, Portugal
  12. Department of Sport, School of Physical Education and Sport, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
Biol Sport. 2026;43:439–448
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5114/biolsport.2026.154941
Online publish date: 2025/10/01
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This study aimed to: (1) investigate the prevalence and magnitude of the Relative Age Effect (RAE) across a national team program; (2) assess the transition rates from youth to senior international level, and (3) examine the influence of birth quartile distribution on transition. 1518 male and 487 female soccer players from a national soccer association were examined. All participants were divided into birth quartiles: January–March (BQ1), April–June (BQ2), July–September (BQ3), and October–December (BQ4). Significant RAE were observed across all age groups, with small-to-medium effect sizes (Cramer’s V: 0.10–0.19), except for male U-16, female U-16, and U-19 players. Senior teams exhibited the most significant RAE, with odds ratios of 2.27 for male and 1.50 for female players. Transition rates from youth to senior teams were higher for female (30%) than male (20%) players. Contrasting trends by birth quartile were evident with males having the lowest transition rate in BQ1 (17%), while females had the lowest transition rate in BQ4 (25%). The number of youth team appearances in both sexes was a significant predictor of transition probability (β = 0.177), with each additional appearance increasing the likelihood of progressing to the senior team by 19.4%. A significant interaction between sex and youth team appearances indicated that the impact of playing opportunities was less pronounced for male players than females. These findings highlight the influence of the RAE in talent development and underscore the need for equitable opportunities for all players, regardless of sex.
keywords:

Youth players, Senior players, Soccer, International teams, Relative age effect

  
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